Can Erdogan be Unseated?

PODCAST | ep12 | with Ahmet Akbiyik, Andrew O’Donohue, and Sophia Zervas
 

The presidential election in Turkey this spring is shaping up to be the most consequential in decades. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has led the country for twenty years, is facing the staunchest opposition in his career in the form of an unprecedented coalition of six parties, called the “Table of Six.” Their presidential candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, has been widely described as low-key, bland, and uncharismatic. But could he be the perfect person to unseat Erdogan? To get us up to speed on this exciting election, we speak with three Graduate Student Associates whose research takes us into the governance, politics, and culture of Turkey—past and present.

Listen to episode #12 (31:15) by clicking the play button below:

Read more about Can Erdogan be Unseated?

WATCH: Gaza rockets aim at populated areas; homes, cars severely damaged

Several homes and vehicles in southern Israel were severely damaged amid heavy rocket fire from Gaza Wednesday evening.

In this video, Israel’s emergency services respond to the aftermath of a fallen rocket in the coastal city of Ashkelon.

Palestinian Islamic Jihad is aiming at civilian populated areas in order to maximize casualties.

Israel’s fire and rescue authority @102_IL respond to the aftermath of a fallen rocket in the coastal city of Ashkelon. Islamic Jihad is aiming at civilian populated areas in order to maximize casualties. #IsraelUnderFire pic.twitter.com/TriFUl9gIo

— Embassy of Israel to the USA | #IsraelUSA75 (@IsraelinUSA) May 10, 2023

The post WATCH: Gaza rockets aim at populated areas; homes, cars severely damaged appeared first on World Israel News.

‘We, not the terrorists, will choose the time and place,’ Netanyahu says; ‘campaign is not yet over’

“Up to now, we have inflicted upon Islamic Jihad in Gaza the hardest blow in its history,” the prime minister said in a statement to the nation Wednesday night. 

By World Israel News Staff

“We are still in the midst of a campaign. At this very moment, our forces are fiercely attacking the Gaza Strip and exacting a heavy price from the terrorist organizations,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement to Israeli citizens Wednesday evening.

He was referring to Operation Shield and Arrow, launched by the IDF early Tuesday morning, before dawn, that eliminated three senior Palestinian Islamic Jihad leaders, among other terrorists – in response to the over-100 rockets fired at Israel last week following the death of prominent hunger-striking PIJ prisoner Khader Adnan.

Throughout the afternoon on Wednesday, PIJ fired hundreds of missiles at southern and central Israel, including Tel Aviv. There were no casualties, but a home in Sderot and a kindergarten in the Eshkol region were hit. Also, several people were reportedly treated for anxiety.

The Iron Dome Defense System intercepted most of the rockets. In Tel Aviv, the new David’s Sling system repelled an attack.

“Egypt approached us with a request for a ceasefire – the issue will be examined,” Foreign Minister Eli Cohen said in an interview with Kan News.

Meanwhile, Gaza terrorists continued firing massive barrages of rockets throughout the evening.

“I would like to reiterate: Whoever harms us, whoever sends terrorists against us, will pay the price,” Netanyahu declared.

“This principle, that whoever attacks us and tries to attack us will pay the price, was significantly strengthened today in Operation Shield and Arrow,” he continued. “The development of new technological capabilities, and the parallel development of new operational capabilities, in combination with our initiative, is creating a new equation.

“We say to the terrorists and whoever dispatches terrorists: We see you everywhere. You cannot hide. We will choose the time and place to attack you. We will choose, not you; not just in response, but in times of calm – the choice is ours.

“Up to now, we have inflicted upon Islamic Jihad in Gaza the hardest blow in its history. Within mere seconds, two seconds, in the middle of the night, at three separate locations, we simultaneously eliminated the terrorist organization’s leaders. We hit its anti-tank units, its arsenals and its rocket production facilities.

“In response to our actions, Islamic Jihad has launched rockets at Israel. A quarter of the rockets, maybe close to a third, fell on their territory. The decisive majority of the rockets were intercepted by our defensive systems.

“I would also like to commend here the Defense Ministry and the security establishment for also developing the new systems that were successfully brought into action today.

“Fortunately, as of now, no Israeli citizen has been wounded. I ask that all Israeli citizens continue following the directives of IDF Home Front Command. You are doing this so well, and it really does save lives.

“Over the last few months, we have taken action against over 20 terrorists, Netanyahu said.

“I would like to thank the IDF, the ISA and the security establishment for working together around the clock on both defense and offense. I would like to thank the citizens of Israel for the full backing and confidence that they are giving our action. I would like to thank the residents of the south, whose local council heads I spoke with today.

“The campaign is not yet over. We will continue to update you. We entered this together. We will get through this together and we will win together,” he concluded.

The post ‘We, not the terrorists, will choose the time and place,’ Netanyahu says; ‘campaign is not yet over’ appeared first on World Israel News.

WATCH: ‘Iron Dome saved us’ – parents, kids under attack

Parents and children run for safety as red siren goes off Wednesday at the end of the school day. On the freeway, there is no shelter nearby to protect civilians from rockets fired from Gaza, but the Iron Dome anti-missile defense system saves lives.

This was my experience just now … was in taxi, near Tel Aviv, on way to pick up my youngest from day care. Red Alert went off. We got out of car, middle of freeway. No immediate shelter. Many people, kids, running for safety. Iron Dome saved us. #IsraelUnderAttack pic.twitter.com/pKavUGezm9

— Arsen Ostrovsky (@Ostrov_A) May 10, 2023

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Flint’s Water Crisis Isn’t Over

The Flint water crisis began nine years ago. Despite initially drawing huge headlines and promises to fix the city’s poisoned drinking supply, no one responsible for the crisis has gone to jail, and residents say water still isn’t fully drinkable.

Then Flint mayor Karen Weaver speaks to residents during a town hall on water, public safety, and job opportunities on March 17, 2016, in Flint, Michigan. (Brett Carlsen / Getty Images)

Imagine for a moment that you and your children are poisoned. The culprit who attacked you is, unbelievably, your own government. The life that you worked hard to build, overcoming obstacles and life’s curveballs, has been forever damaged. Many of your family, friends, and neighbors have grown ill as the months and years drag on. A large number of the sick go on to die. The causes of death run the gamut. Relatively young people die of cancers for which they have no family history. Others’ kidneys or liver fail. Many develop heart problems or sudden strokes. Children suffer from brain damage, developing learning disabilities and volatile mood swings that cause disruptions in their schooling, extracurriculars, and relationships.

And nearly a decade later, no one who knowingly attacked your mind, body, and spirit is in prison.

Not the low-level office lackey who wasn’t really involved but could have sounded the alarm; not the middle-manager government bureaucrat who looked the other way knowing people would die; not even the high-level sacrificial lamb who didn’t mastermind the scheme, but was chosen by the big poo-bahs to be violently tossed under the bus. And definitely not the key players who actively executed, and then covered up, the crime.

Adding insult to poisonous injury, despite assurances from the government who poisoned you, and a compliant media that has all but abandoned you in favor of regurgitating what the government criminals tell them, you’re still actively being attacked by the water your state and city are pumping through your taps and showerheads.

Flint, Michigan residents need not imagine this dystopian hellscape. They’ve been living it for nine years today.

Or, to be exact, 3,287 days.

Despite the Flint water crisis still being an active, urgent crisis for the people in Flint, for the majority of Americans, the crisis ceased registering as one five years ago. Back in 2018, then governor Rick Snyder — who had thus far avoided accountability by feigning ignorance and the nobody-told-me mantra — declared Flint’s water “restored” and back to “safe” pre-2014 crisis levels.

As Status Coup broke that same year, this was a deadly lie. Snyder’s government, specifically his environmental department, had manipulated Flint’s water-testing data, literally flushing away the evidence of high water lead levels in order to artificially produce lower data and declare the city’s water safe. When approached by Status Coup, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) actually acknowledged that the governor’s environmental department had violated federal regulations by sending officials into residents’ homes and running their water for several minutes before collecting water samples (and telling residents to do so themselves when they did the testing on their own). This was a blatant violation of the lead and copper rule, the EPA’s gold standard for water testing.

The governor’s environmental department had violated federal regulations by sending officials into residents’ homes and running their water for several minutes before collecting water samples.

“Falsifying a federal and state regulatory compliance test: that is a crime,” legendary environmental consumer advocate Erin Brockovich told Status Coup about the manipulated testing in 2018. In light of the falsified tests, which Brockovich called “cheating,” she called for Snyder’s environmental department’s testing to be flushed down the toilet:

The sample set is representative of at least some not testing properly, and therefore the entire sample set should be invalidated. Without proper training and compliance, one must assume all of the samples are not valid.

So, of course the agency tasked with protecting the United States’ environment and public health acted upon this scandalous information, right?

Wrong. The EPA did worse than nothing. It echoed the criminally fraudulent testing, passed off by Governor Snyder as Flint’s “Mission Accomplished,” and lent its rubber stamp to the lie that Flint’s water was safe.

But five years after Flint’s water was declared “restored,” one only has to spend some time in the embattled, impoverished Rust Belt city — or just speak with enough residents — to know that nearly a decade later, Flint’s water is still contaminated.

“My water has a sewer smell off and on . . . and black shiny stuff coming out in the water,” Flint resident Joelena Freeman told Status Coup. “It’s gross and we have no idea what it is or what it could be doing to us. But we have no choice but to shower in it and hope for the best. I mean, dang, it’s a rotten way to live day to day and for this long.”

Melissa Mays, a Flint mother of three who became the lead plaintiff against Governor Snyder and the state of Michigan in the 2017 settlement that awarded the city $97 million toward lead service-line replacement, also made clear that the city’s water is in no way safe.

“My water smells like straight pond because it’s TTHM testing time again so no chlorine [in the water],” Mays said. Her chlorine reference is in regard to water testing underway looking at total trihalomethane (TTHM) levels in Flint’s water. TTHMs are disinfection byproducts that, at elevated levels, can cause cancer, and were found to far exceed safe health levels in Flint in 2014.

Mays, along with other activists, has been fighting for justice and clean water for eight years now. Very little has changed, but Mays told Status Coup that giving up is not an option:

If we give up, this damaged, corroded, unstable infrastructure will continue to crumble and innocent people will suffer in Flint and every city out there that can and will end up just like us if justice isn’t done. It should not take 9 years to replace the mains, service lines & interior plumbing destroyed by those in power. We cannot and will not give up.

Just as problematic as Flint’s water, Michigan’s political and so-called justice system has become just as toxic, ultimately revictimizing Flint residents all over again.

“Flint was poisoned for privatization, and profit, and the fight continues,” Mays continued. “Waking up every day knowing that we have to fight for the basic human right to safe water and we’re sick because of it is exhausting.”

For years, Flint residents had hoped that its state attorney general’s office would fight like hell and win some form of justice for them. Instead, nearly a decade later, it’s beginning to look highly unlikely that any government official or culpable player that caused their suffering will see prison time.

Prosecutors who led an initial three-year Flint water criminal investigation, launched in 2016, were building momentum. After yearlong pretrials against the head of the state health department and the state’s chief medical executive, a judge had bound both over to face jury trials for involuntary manslaughter charges.

Just as problematic as Flint’s water, Michigan’s political and so-called justice system has become just as toxic, ultimately revictimizing Flint residents all over again.

The special prosecutor who presided over those cases and the entire criminal investigation, Todd Flood, was also building a case against Governor Snyder himself — for involuntary manslaughter. As yours truly broke in the Intercept in 2021, part of the case being built against Snyder was based on phone calls prosecutors obtained — showing a flurry of phone calls over two days in October 2014 between Snyder, his chief of staff, and the state health department director — at the same time as cases of the deadly waterborne Legionnaires’ disease were surging in Flint. The sequence and high volume of the calls led prosecutors to conclude that Snyder and his lieutenants were attempting to cover up the outbreak.

“This evidence shows the Governor, his administration, Director Lyon, and the MHA [Michigan Health and Hospital Association] knew about this outbreak of Legionnaires’ in October 2014, and were interested in keeping the information from going public,” then special prosecutor Flood wrote in a subpoena draft.

The original prosecution team was not stopping at Snyder. As I broke in the Guardian in 2022, other prosecutors and investigators were close to filing sprawling racketeering, or RICO, charges against the masterminds of a criminally fraudulent financial scheme that served as the dark underbelly sparking the water crisis. Other key defendants were beginning to cooperate with prosecutors, signaling their willingness to “flip” on top officials within the Snyder administration, which prosecutors believed would help them gather the evidence needed to charge Snyder himself.

And then Dana Nessel walked through the sttorney general’s office.

Nessel, who all but condemned the aforementioned investigation as a candidate for attorney general — attacking Flood and criticizing what she perceived as the investigation’s lack of results — entered office in 2019 and cleaned house. She fired Flood, chief investigator and former Detroit FBI chief Andy Arena, and most of the original team of prosecutors and investigators. She claimed, with little evidence, that the team had fumbled the ball, failing to secure millions of key documents while messing up procedural steps that would ultimately jeopardize convictions. Nessel appointed her solicitor general Fadwa Hammoud and Wayne County prosecutor Kym Worthy to essentially restart the entire investigation from scratch.

Both went to Flint in 2019 and spoke in front of residents, decrying what they criticized as mistakes of the original investigation team and promising them that justice was only being “delayed.”

Four years later, Nessel’s team has all but lit the investigation, and any possible justice for Flint, on fire. Rather than getting into the long, thorny weeds, here is the gist of the disastrous, restarted second investigation launched by Nessel and her handpicked prosecutors. Much of the below comes from high-level sources familiar with both the original and second investigation.

Nessel’s team has all but lit the investigation, and any possible justice for Flint, on fire.

Step 1: Nessel’s prosecutors choose not to receive an in-person debrief from the chief investigator they fired.

Step 2: Nessel’s prosecutors all but ignore an in-depth transition memo provided to them outlining the widespread financial fraud scheme that caused the Flint water crisis.

Step 3: Nessel’s prosecutors meet with government officials inquiring into the financial fraud case that had already been built by the original investigation. Sources told Status Coup that Nessel’s prosecutors “clearly don’t know the basics” of the case.

Step 4: In June 2019, Nessel dismisses charges against eight key state and city officials — including the two top health officials a judge has ruled must face jury trials for voluntary manslaughter. Along with the serious involuntary manslaughter charges being tossed, financial fraud charges related to the KWA pipeline bond fraud are also dismissed. At the time, she assured Flint residents that the dismissals would not preempt her from recharging those same officials.

Step 5: Nessel’s prosecutors forego the public pretrials approach that the original Flint prosecution team used, instead opting to bring its evidence through a secretive, one-man grand jury process (i.e. a judge). The process is not often used in Michigan.

Step 6: In January 2021, Nessel’s office charges Governor Snyder with two counts of misdemeanor willful neglect of duty, charges with a maximum prison sentence of one year and fine of $1,000. Status Coup’s reporting indicates that the pre-Nessel investigation was building a much more serious case against Snyder for involuntary manslaughter (which has been confirmed by two other Michigan reporters).

Along with Snyder, Nessel’s prosecutors charge eight other state and city officials — including Snyder’s top adviser Richard Baird and former press secretary Jarrod Agen. As I broke for VICE News and Detroit Metro Times in 2020, Baird, known as Snyder’s right-hand man and “fixer,” offered sick Flint residents payoffs in exchange for their silence.

Former Flint emergency managers Darnell Earley and Gerald Ambrose, who were originally charged by special prosecutor Flood for alleged financial fraud related to the KWA bond deal, but had those charges dismissed in 2019 by Nessel, are recharged. But Nessel’s team does not bring back the financial fraud charges against them; the two are charged only with felony misconduct in office.

Step 7: Attorneys for Snyder and other defendants ask the courts to dismiss charges, pointing to the fact that Nessel’s prosecutors did not use a “taint” team — a group of independent attorneys not involved with the case to comb through the evidence and remove anything protected by attorney-client privilege — as part of their gathering of evidence. Attorneys also call for dismissal of charges based on Nessel using a one-man grand jury to file the indictments against Snyder and others, a move that defendants’ attorneys claim violated Michigan’s constitution.

Step 8: In 2022, in a seven to zero ruling, the Michigan Supreme Court rules that Nessel’s prosecutors violated the state constitution by using a one-man grand jury to bring criminal indictments against Snyder and eight other defendants. As a result, charges against Governor Snyder and seven other defendants were dismissed.

Step 9: Nessel’s prosecutors appeal — and lose. As of today, the nine-year anniversary, Nessel’s prosecution team claims that the investigation is still “ongoing” and that there is a path to getting charges refiled and defendants in front of a jury.

Unfortunately, for the poisoned residents of Flint, I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Sources indicate that the statute of limitations, which is six years for most felonies in Michigan, has already run out for most of the criminal charges against state and city officials. The only remaining charges that would still potentially be in play are involuntary manslaughter (with a ten-year statute of limitations).

The attorney general’s office did not respond to Status Coup’s request for comment on how the investigation is still ongoing if the charges against Snyder and other defendants have been thrown out by the Michigan Supreme Court and they’ve lost their appeal.

With the odds of justice for Flint residents dwindling, and residents still complaining about water they insist is contaminated, Flint has become one of the most prominent environmental calamities in American history to be quietly erased from the public and media consciousness.

But Flint is still suffering. Or, as the late Flint resident Tony Palladeno once told me, “This place ain’t safe, it’s not safe at all. We got a pistol in our mouth everyday — it’s called tap water.”

83 Years Ago: Fall of France, the Wehrmacht’s Advance Through the Ardennes Forest

All Global Research articles can be read in 51 languages by activating the “Translate Website” drop down menu on the top banner of our home page (Desktop version). 

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S&P to affirm Israel rating after Netanyahu guarantees halt to judicial overhaul

The prime minister was involved in talks with representatives of the rating agency and promised that the judicial coup would not get passed in its original form

By Adrian Filut, Calcalist

Barring any last minute extreme events, rating agency S&P is expected to affirm Israel’s credit rating (AA-) and credit outlook (stable) when it releases its latest report this Friday.

This is similar to Fitch Ratings, which also did not lower Israel’s rating, but unlike Moody’s, which chose to downgrade the rating outlook from positive to stable last month.

This seemingly technical decision by S&P was only made after plenty of drama behind the scenes.

Sources told Calcalist that the person who was most deeply involved in the talks with S&P in Israel in the recent period, including daily phone calls with company executives and even with the rating teams, was none other than Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

In those conversations, Netanyahu explained that the judicial overhaul would not be carried out in its original form, and according to the same sources, these statements calmed the S&P economists and convinced them not to lower the rating or outlook.

It appears that Netanyahu had greater success in his dealings with S&P than he had with the Moody’s rating agency. Netanyahu also tried to convince Moody’s not to lower the outlook, but failed.

The reason for this partly lies in the timing: Moody’s preliminary tour of Israel was held in the midst of the legislative blitz and at the height of the protests across the country.

On the other hand, Maxim Rybnikov, the rater on behalf of S&P, and his teams, arrived in Israel after Netanyahu stopped the legislative proceedings, and while the negotiation teams are gathered in the President’s residence. At this time, it also seems quite clear that the Prime Minister is trying to abandon the judicial coup and concentrate on the economy and security situation. Under these circumstances it was easier to convince S&P to avoid downgrading the outlook.

President Herzog Intervenes

Israeli President Isaac Herzog was also involved in the talks with S&P. Sources close to Herzog said that the president explained to the rating agency the processes and the dynamics of the talks at his residence.

S&P is set to publish its semi-annual report and the final decision on the rating this Friday. A few days ago, S&P published its monthly snapshot of the credit rating of all countries, and according to analysis by several experts in the capital market, as well as in the government, all signs point to no change in Israel’s rating.

S&P’s credit rating is based on individual scores in five parameters: institutional assessment (strength of government institutions and policy quality), economic assessment (GDP, growth, unemployment, etc.), fiscal assessment (which is divided into budget assessment and government debt assessment), monetary assessment and external assessment (surplus/deficit). Each parameter receives a numerical score ranging from 1 (highest) to 6 (worst).

The focus this time was placed on the institutional assessment, as Rybnikov has already clarified that a change in the institutional system will affect the economy, and hence also the rating.

“If, contrary to the previous situation, the institutional system in Israel enters a consistent path of weakening, including damage to the system of checks and balances, and political power is concentrated too much in the hands of one person or one group, the public debate will also be damaged and it will lead to fiscal policy being less responsible – not just for one year, but become a feature of policymaking. All of these things could become a real rating risk,” Rybnikov told Calcalist earlier this year.

He added that S&P has “concerns about the fact that the entry of the extreme right into the coalition could cause a worsening of the situation in Gaza, the West Bank and also in relations with the Israeli Arabs. And it’s not that the situation was simple before: the situation was already challenging and we saw what happened in Gaza and the West Bank. But our impression is that the risk on this front is increasing and maybe we will see some sort of escalation. This is an aspect we are following very closely.”

Rybnikov added, “If it seems that the current institutional arrangements will be particularly weakened, this is something that we will indeed take into account to determine a rating, and it may pose a downside risk. In this regard, we are closely monitoring the consequences of the expected changes in everything related to the Supreme Court. We are also monitoring the coalition’s statements regarding the budget and the planned budgetary policy in general.”

However, the estimates among the executives who spoke with S&P is that the agency will not lower Israel’s grade in regard to institutional strength as it is already very low at 4. Lowering it to 5 would mean Israel’s inclusion in a group of countries that includes, among others, Albania, Armenia, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Honduras, and El Salvador. “Israel is neither El Salvador nor Honduras,” one source said.

And let’s return to President Herzog: Sources close to him said that contrary to reports, the person who turned to him for help was not the prime minister, but the accountant general at the Ministry of Finance, Yali Rothenberg.

Since the accountant general is responsible for the visits of all the teams on behalf of the rating companies and is the one who sets their schedule, he has a significant influence on the messages that reach the ears of the raters. The Finance Ministry made sure to have representatives in the room whenever the rating agencies met government officials that previously spoke out against the consequences of the judicial legislation.

Security Penalty

On the face of it, Israel’s rating should be AA, but Israel gets downgraded to AA  because of the risk of rapid deterioration due an extreme security event such as an all-out war with Iran or a conflict with Hamas, according to S&P. Even if the current operation in Gaza deteriorates into a more serious war against the Palestinian terrorist organizations, it is difficult to see S&P lowering a rating or rating outlook this week. The schedule seems too tight.

The big remaining question is what will happen if it the S&P economists decide that Netanyahu was not telling the truth and he intends to move forward with the reform anyway, or alternatively, that in a few days the security situation will deteriorate.

The answer in this case is simple: A rating agency may at any given moment issue a warning, or outlook update, or rating update, without prior notice. It is customary to take advantage of the publication of the semi-annual report to update the rating or outlook if necessary, but if S&P realizes that Netanyahu was not telling the truth, a scenario that is not without precedent, the raters are expected to react accordingly regardless of timing.

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